WNBA power rankings: Chelsea Gray's return propels defending champion Aces (2024)

After the Dallas Wings lost their 11th consecutive game and became one of two teams to have a double-digit losing streak this season — incidentally, the other just beat them twice — it seems like a good time to check in on the 2025 WNBA Draft lottery.

As a reminder, the lottery in the WNBA consists of the four teams that don’t make the playoffs. Those teams have their records calculated over the last two seasons, and the worst combined record has the best lottery odds, though nothing is guaranteed since the chance of that team getting the No. 1 pick is still only 44.2 percent. The next-worst record has a 27.6 percent chance of the top pick, then 17.8 percent, then 10.4 percent.

Currently, the four teams in the 2025 lottery are the Wings, Washington Mystics, Los Angeles Sparks and Indiana Fever. All of those franchises own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft. The Fever would have the best lottery odds even though they are in ninth place now because they had the fewest wins of this group a year ago. As the Wings have seen their season go up in flames, they will have a tougher time getting the top odds because they won 22 games in 2023; they are the only team in the bottom of the standings with a winning record last season.

Things get interesting if Indiana continues its recent run of play and the Atlanta Dream or Chicago Sky fall out of the playoffs. The Dream traded their first-round pick to Dallas in 2023 for Allisha Gray, but the Wings sent it to the Mystics for the right to select Stephanie Soares. (For what it’s worth, I graded Dallas’ draft a D-plus at the time, and it only looks worse in hindsight.) The Sky also gave up control of their pick in the Marina Mabrey sign-and-trade, so the Wings will have the opportunity to swap first-round spots with Chicago in 2025. Those two teams might be swapping lottery picks, but either way, the Sky can’t select first overall.

And first is the big prize in this upcoming draft by a long shot. Paige Bueckers has said she is treating 2024-25 as her final college season (despite a potential additional year of eligibility because of the COVID-19 year); she projects to be a franchise cornerstone, not unlike the 2024 draftees she began her college career with. Kiki Iriafen, Georgia Amoore and a host of South Carolina and Notre Dame seniors also await in 2025.

So as the Mystics, Wings and Sparks go through rough patches, keep in mind that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Internal development isn’t the only way these teams can improve soon.

Three standout performances

1. This is what the Las Vegas Aces are supposed to look like

After the Aces beat the Seattle Storm on Wednesday, Becky Hammon called it her team’s “most complete game” of the season, which only makes sense since Las Vegas had its most complete roster of the season. Chelsea Gray is back, and two comfortable wins against the Storm and Connecticut Sun have the defending champs trending up.

Gray’s passing was an immediate boon for Las Vegas, as she had seven assists in her first game back, even when coming off the bench. Within moments of getting on the court, she connected with Alysha Clark for a 3-pointer and threw a behind-the-back dart to Jackie Young in the paint, which led to a corner 3 for Kiah Stokes. The ball pops when Gray is in the game, and the crowd “oozes excitement” for the flashy play, in Hammon’s words. “She gets you some easy stuff,” Hammon said. “All of a sudden, my ATOs got real good.”

Getting Gray back puts everyone else in their proper roles. Young can focus more on play finishing, which she did to the tune of 32 points against the Storm. With more guards available, Clark functions as a four instead of a three, and she looks more comfortable in those spots. Clark had back-to-back double-digit scoring outputs for the first time in 2024 this week; of Gray’s eight assists, four have gone to the veteran forward. It also helped that Tiffany Hayes got the start during those two games to move Young and Kelsey Plum off the ball and mimic what Gray will do when she is fully back.

Even in the wins, Las Vegas hasn’t been as consistently excellent as the New York Liberty or the Minnesota Lynx. There remains much to clean up on offense and defense. But the product at least looks like the identity the Aces have created since 2022. A’ja Wilson is the team’s best player, but Gray is its leader and tone-setter.

2. Jonquel Jones, playmaker?

When the term “unicorn” is used to describe a basketball player, it generally refers to a super-skilled big who can protect the paint and score inside like a traditional center but also space the floor from 3-point range. Jones is the pre-eminent unicorn in the WNBA, but she is expanding that skill set beyond the traditional definition. Over the past five games, Jones has assisted on 25 made baskets for the Liberty. The only other frontcourt player to have a five-game stretch with as many assists this season is Alyssa Thomas. Jones is in some rarefied air.

Jones isn’t only making run-of-the-mill passes. Sure, some assists come on swings on the perimeter to the next open player. But Jones is creating openings for her teammates, like a quarterback does for a receiver. She is stationing herself at the top of the key and throwing the ball to where a cutter will be at the basket. She is sucking in the defense on the pick-and-roll and then making skip passes to shooters on the perimeter. Sometimes she even leads the break on rebounds and finds a trailer for a basket. Jones is even getting stylish with behind-the-back feeds and no-looks.

Check out this potential assist to the corner to Leonie Fiebich as Jones is doubled and facing the opposite direction. Centers in the WNBA don’t do that.

Jonquel Jones getting this pass out of the post 😳 pic.twitter.com/uwFRi570iY

— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) June 22, 2024

Jones is posting the highest assist percentage (19.2) of her career, even better than her MVP season in 2021. She’s been asked to operate farther away from the basket than at any point as a pro, which has diminished her free-throw rate, but she has adapted by adding value as a passer instead. The Liberty are 16-0 in the regular season when Jones records a double-double. Perhaps the next such instance could be points and assists.

3. Emily Engstler finally looks like a lottery pick

Engstler entered the season as the fifth big in Washington’s frontcourt rotation, not guaranteed to get any minutes, let alone consistent playing time, on a healthy Mystics roster. But Shakira Austin has been limited all season as she returns from a hip injury. Then, Aaliyah Edwards missed the last two games with a back injury, and Myisha Hines-Allen hasn’t been at full strength with a groin issue. All of a sudden, Engstler — who had crossed double-digit minutes once all year, in a 32-point blowout — was an integral part of Washington’s rotation.

Engstler was the No. 4 pick coming out of Louisville in 2022, only two years ago after leading the Cardinals to a Final Four appearance, but it’s hard to remember her ever showing as much promise at the pro level as she has over the past three games for the Mystics. The 3-ball was working, which made everything fall into place, but Engstler was a jack-of-all-trades on offense. She screened and popped out for jumpers, then used the threat of that jumper to drive to the basket. She ran the floor hard in transition and timed her trail runs to be there when the pass was coming. She was an outstanding entry passer and has a strong one-handed overhand delivery that’s difficult to defend. Throughout the week, she showed good instincts for where the ball should be.

EMILY with back to back plays… pic.twitter.com/sbUgQ2AsyM

— Washington Mystics (@WashMystics) June 23, 2024

Those instincts translated to her help defense, where she forced turnovers and deflections as the secondary defender. Her one-on-one defense was less impressive, as she surrendered blow-bys and some back-down post-ups with little resistance. Her frame is still somewhat in between a three and a four, which isn’t all that uncommon around the league. Engstler has to figure out what her advantages are and ask for help when she’s in a bad position.

Watching Engstler get this opportunity was a reminder of what rebuilding teams should be doing. The Mystics easily could have given her roster spot to a more proven commodity, a veteran like Mo Billings or Emma Cannon. But Washington is trying to find the pieces of the next great Mystics team, and it’s more likely Engstler will be a part of that era than any tenured veteran, even if the third-year forward isn’t as good now. There is a limit to how much youth can be productive together — the 2020 Liberty team that played seven rookies comes to mind — and veterans have a place as leaders by example. But Washington seems to be striking the right balance by giving young players a chance while still making them earn their minutes.

Rookie of the week

Leonie Fiebich, New York Liberty

A couple of rookies for the Liberty could have earned this spot this week, but let’s stick with the one who found herself in the starting lineup. Fiebich’s defense has been monumental for New York thus far, and she’s been even more aggressive as a starter with the help of Jones and Breanna Stewart behind her. She gets in the passing lanes and creates transition opportunities with steals. She can hold her own in isolation and fights over screens despite her impressive size.

One of Fiebich’s finest defensive plays against the Sparks showed up in the box score as a block for Stewart, but the Liberty MVP was only able to contest the shot because Fiebich kept Rickea Jackson in front and forced Jackson to fade into Stewart’s path.

“We rave about her all the time, and it doesn’t always show on the stat sheet,” New York coach Sandy Brondello said. “It’s the impact that she does on the defensive end, it’s her versatility. She reads well off these players, she’s a great rebounder — does all the little things well.”

Fiebich had a decorated international pedigree when she was drafted by the Sparks in 2020, but unfortunately for Los Angeles, the assistant general manager who vouched for her left the team shortly afterward, leading to Fiebich’s rights being sent to Chicago and then New York. She has fit right in with the Liberty and their new switchable, versatile identity this season. A team that was lacking in perimeter defense a year ago is now bursting with stoppers, including its 24-year-old rookie.

Game to circle

Las Vegas Aces at Chicago Sky, 7 p.m. ET, Thursday

In theory, this should be the Commissioner’s Cup championship between Minnesota and New York, the top two teams in the rankings. But that’s the only game from Monday to Wednesday, so it doesn’t need any extra highlighting. When the rest of the league returns to action Thursday, keep an eye on Chicago hosting Las Vegas. Angel Reese has been dominant of late, punctuated by her leading the Sky’s comeback against the Fever on Sunday, when she put up a rookie stat line no one has achieved since A’ja Wilson in 2018. Now she gets to face off against Wilson herself, and the post moves NaLyssa Smith had no answers for will be defended by the reigning two-time defensive player of the year.

Wilson had a little something extra every time she played against Aliyah Boston last year, averaging 26 points and 10 rebounds. Reese isn’t a South Carolina alum, but she is another young big challenging Wilson’s reign over the league. How much can the rookie test the best player in the world?

(Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

Sabreena Merchant is a women's basketball Staff Writer for The Athletic. She previously covered the WNBA and NBA for SB Nation. Sabreena is an alum of Duke University, where she wrote for the independent student newspaper, The Chronicle. She is based in Los Angeles. Follow Sabreena on Twitter @sabreenajm